A Little Good News, But Don’t Get Too Excited
Things on the economic front still look very bad out there, what with a stock market in free fall, Iceland on the verge of bankruptcy, and, oh, did you hear that we’re pumping another $38 billion into AIG? It’s all ugly, and it’s probably going to get worse and stay bad for some time.
But there’s a few little tiny bits of good news that Yves Smith rescued from the rubble yesterday. First, the credit markets are starting, ever so slowly, to loosen up. Here’s Smith:
It is way to early to take cheer, but some of the stress in the money markets is backing off a bit. The TED spread is below 4, and ten year credit swap spreads were down to 45 basis points, which is a serious improvement and a genuine positive sign.
Part two of the semi-sweet news is that the Treasury Department may have figured out that it needs to do what Smith, Nouriel Roubini, and Paul Krugman have been trying to tell it to do for a couple of weeks now: namely, recapitalize banks directly. Here’s today’s New York Times on the new plan, again via Smith:
Treasury officials say the just-passed $700 billion bailout bill gives them the authority to inject cash directly into banks that request it. Such a move would quickly strengthen banks’ balance sheets and, officials hope, persuade them to resume lending. In return, the law gives the Treasury the right to take ownership positions in banks, including healthy ones.
The Treasury plan, still preliminary, resembles one announced on Wednesday in Britain. Under that plan, the British government would offer banks like the Royal Bank of Scotland, Barclays and HSBC Holdings up to $87 billion to shore up their capital in exchange for preference shares. It also would provide a guarantee of about $430 billion to help banks refinance debt.
The American recapitalization plan, officials say, has emerged as one of the most favored new options being discussed in Washington and on Wall Street. The appeal is that it would directly address the worries that banks have about lending to one another and to other customers…

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