Brain Drain is an Existential Threat to Israel
In Jeffrey Goldberg’s new “must-read” story about Israel and Iran, which I spent last night ranting about on Twitter, he concedes that “Israeli policy makers do not necessarily believe that Iran, should it acquire a nuclear device, would immediately launch it by missile at Tel Aviv.” But he suggests that Israel might go ahead and bomb Iran anyway, and for three reasons. Prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu offers two of them:
“First, Iran’s militant proxies would be able to fire rockets and engage in other terror activities while enjoying a nuclear umbrella. This raises the stakes of any confrontation that they’d force on Israel. Instead of being a local event, however painful, it becomes a global one. Second, this development would embolden Islamic militants far and wide, on many continents, who would believe that this is a providential sign, that this fanaticism is on the ultimate road to triumph.”
The first reason seems at least minimally defensible, even though it doesn’t take into account that deterrence also affects conventional warfare, since neither side wants to see a minor scuffle get too far out of hand. The second reason, not so much: if militant Muslim fanatics looked to the development of nuclear weapons as a sign from God to go more batshit bonkers than they already are—and that’s a big if—you would think they’d already found their clue in the completion of Pakistan’s bomb. (And no, I don’t think the Shia/Sunni split helps the argument.)
But it’s the third reason Goldberg cites that really caught my eye. It’s insane enough to need lengthy quotation:
