1/ From “The Fatal Conceit,” today’s column:

Over the past year, the bon­fire of over­con­fi­dence has shifted to Wash­ing­ton. Since the mas­ters of finance have been exposed as idiots, the mas­ters of gov­ern­ment have con­cluded (some­what illog­i­cally) that they must be really smart.

Over­con­fi­dence in gov­ern­ment also has a char­ac­ter­is­tic form: that of highly ratio­nal Olympians who attempt to stand above prob­lems and solve them in a finely tuned and impar­tial manner. In moments of gov­ern­ment over­con­fi­dence, offi­cials come to see soci­ety not as a dynamic and com­plex organ­ism, but as a machine, which can be rebuilt. In such moments, gov­er­nance and engi­neer­ing merge into one.

2/ From “Heroes and History,” a 7/17/07 column:

I left the 110-minute ses­sion think­ing that far from being worn down by the past few years, Bush seems empow­ered. His self-​confidence is the most remark­able fea­ture of his presidency.

All this will be taken as evi­dence by many that Bush is delu­sional. He’s living in a cocoon. He doesn’t see or can’t face how badly the war is going and how awfully he has performed.

But Bush is not blind to the real­i­ties in Iraq….

Rather, his self-​confidence sur­vives because it flows from two sources. The first is his uncon­quer­able faith in the right­ness of his Big Idea. Bush is con­vinced that his­tory is moving in the direc­tion of democracy….

Second, Bush remains ener­gized by the power of the presidency.